Global air cargo markets decelerated in March, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) has reported. (IATA was the global representative body for the airline industry.)

“Air cargo demand fell 4.8% in March compared to the previous year. This was mostly due to severe disruptions at major Gulf hubs due to war in the Middle East. The timing of the usual post–Lunar New Year slowdown also added to the decline,” explained IATA director-general Willie Walsh. “The underlying demand trends, at this point, appear strong and the recent World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund revisions to trade and GDP projections continue to see growth in 2026. Importantly, air cargo networks are providing the flexibility needed to support global supply chains as they adjust to geopolitical, tariff, and operational strains. All eyes are on fuel supply and price, which are expected to test the industry’s resilience in the coming months.”

International air cargo demand declined more steeply than total demand in March, falling 5.5%, year-on-year. Total air cargo capacity fell by 4.7% and international capacity by 6.8%, year-on-year.

Regarding wider economic factors that affected air cargo, global industrial production increased by 3.1% year-on-year in February (the 38th straight month of growth) while, in the same month, the global goods trade jumped 8%, year-on-year.

Although the global manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI) declined slightly in March, month-on-month, it still showed growth, at 51.4. The PMI for new export orders was also in growth territory, at 50.1. These figures signalled favourable conditions for air cargo demand.
 

However, jet fuel prices leaped in March by 106.6%, year-on-year. Crude oil prices jumped 43.1% and refining margins rocketed by 320%.

The region that saw the strongest year-on-year increase in air cargo demand in March was Africa, at 7%. It was followed by the Asia-Pacific (5.4%), Europe (2.2%) and Latin America and the Caribbean (1.8%). North America saw a decline of -1.2%, while, unsurprisingly, the Middle East saw a collapse of -54.3%.

In terms of the major international air cargo trade lanes, the one that saw the greatest year-on-year growth in March was Africa-Asia, at 22.6%. Then came Europe-Asia (14.2%), within Asia (7.5%), within Europe (2.3%) and Asia-North America (0.8%). Europe-North America saw a decline of -3.4%. The Middle East’s trade routes were hit hard. Europe-Middle East fell by -57.6% and Middle East-Asia dropped by -58.6%.